ABP Network-CVoter Final Opinion Poll Survey: TMC to hold power in Bengal
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ABP Network has revealed the findings of its Final Opinion Poll Survey for all four states and a union territory that go to polls in 2021 – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry. Conducted alongside research partner CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research), the opinion poll survey aims to provide a clearer picture of how the ballot game stands in the five states.
The ABP Network-CVoter survey revealed that as per public opinion, TMC is leading in West Bengal with 42.1% vote share (152-168 seats), whereas BJP stands second with 37.4% vote share (104-120 seats), followed by Left-Congress-ISF Alliance with 13% vote share (18-26 seats).
The eight-phase election in Bengal will begin from March 27 and end on April 29. The counting of votes and results will be declared on May 2.
| West Bengal | Party Alliance: Votes (%) | |
| Alliance Votes: West Bengal | 2021 Projection | |
| TMC | 42.1 | |
| BJP | 37.4 | |
| INC+LEFT+ISF | 13.0 | |
| Others | 7.5 | |
| Total | 100.0 |
| West Bengal | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats : West Bengal | From | To | |
| TMC | 152 | 168 | |
| BJP | 104 | 120 | |
| INC+LEFT | 18 | 26 | |
| Others | 0 | 2 | |
| Total | 294 | ||
Furthermore, according to the survey, NDA is leading in Assam with 45% vote share (65 to 73 seats), whereas UPA stands second with 41.1% vote share (52 to 60 Seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 13.9% vote share (0 to 4 seats).
| Assam | Party Alliance: Votes (%) | |
| Alliance Votes: Assam | 2021 Projection | |
| NDA | 45.0 | |
| UPA | 41.1 | |
| Others | 13.9 | |
| Total | 100.0 |
| Assam | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats : Assam | From | To | |
| NDA | 65 | 73 | |
| UPA | 52 | 60 | |
| Others | 0 | 4 | |
| Total | 126 | ||
As for Kerala, LDF is leading with 42.4% vote share (71 to 83 seats), whereas UDF stands second with 38.6% vote share (56 to 68 Seats). BJP grabs the third spot with mere 16.4% vote share (0 to 2 seats).
| Kerala | Party Alliance: Votes (%) | ||
| Alliance Votes: Kerala | 2021 Projection | ||
| LDF | 42.4 | ||
| UDF | 38.6 | ||
| BJP | 16.4 | ||
| Others | 2.6 | ||
| Total | 100.0 | ||
| Kerala | Projected Range Of Seats | |||
| Alliance Seats: Kerala | From | To | ||
| LDF | 71 | 83 | ||
| UDF | 56 | 68 | ||
| BJP | 0 | 2 | ||
| Others | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 140 | |||
In Puducherry, NDA is leading with 47.2% vote share (19 to 23 seats), whereas UPA stands second with 39.5% vote share (7-11 seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 13.3% vote share (0 to 1 seat).
| Puducherry | Party Alliance: Votes (%) | |
| Alliance Votes : Puducherry | 2021 Projection | |
| UPA (Congress+DMK) | 39.5 | |
| NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) | 47.2 | |
| Others | 13.3 | |
| Total | 100.0 |
| Puducherry | Projected Range Of Seats | |||
| Alliance Seats : Puducherry | From | To | ||
| UPA (Congress+DMK) | 7 | 11 | ||
| NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) | 19 | 23 | ||
| Others | 0 | 1 | ||
| Total | 30 | |||
The survey revealed that as per public opinion, UPA is leading in Tamil Nadu with 46% vote share (173 to 181 seats), whereas NDA stands second with 34.6% vote share (45 to 53 Seats). MNM grabs the third spot with mere 4.4% vote share (1 to 5 seats).
| Tamil Nadu | Party Alliance: Votes (%) | |
| Alliance Votes : TamilNadu | 2021 Projection | |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 46.0 | |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 34.6 | |
| MNM | 4.4 | |
| AMMK | 3.6 | |
| Others | 11.4 | |
| Total | 100.0 |
| Tamil Nadu | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats : TamilNadu | From | To | |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 173 | 181 | |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 45 | 53 | |
| MNM | 1 | 5 | |
| AMMK | 1 | 5 | |
| Others | 0 | 4 | |
| Total | 234 | ||
As for the methodology and survey details, the CVoter survey reached out to a total of approximately 2290 people in West Bengal, 1513 people in Tamil Nadu, 1735 people in Kerala, 1002 people in Puducherry, 1117 people in Assam. It was conducted through CATI (Telephonic survey). The results are subject to a margin of error: +/- 3% and Confidence: 95%.
