The ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) November 2021 opinion poll predicts a narrow win for the BJP in UP, Uttarakhand and Goa, with its seat share falling precariously close to the majority mark in UP and Uttarakhand. Punjab and Manipur remain too close to call for any party, with AAP and BJP leading in Punjab and Manipur respectively.
As per ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, Yogi Adityanath continues to be the preferred choice for Uttar Pradesh CM with 41.4% of votes. However, BJP’s winning margin is predicted to come down to between 213-221 seats, giving it a slight breathing space over the majority mark of 202 seats in UP. In Punjab, new Congress party CM Charanjit Singh Channi has gained top spot as the preferred CM candidate with 30.9% of votes. But, AAP continues to remain in the pole position in Punjab with a projected 47-53 seats, but no party appears to be in a position to make a government in Punjab.
In Uttarakhand sitting CM Pushkar Singh Dhami has increased his popularity to 27.7%, but is still trailing Congress’s Harish Rawat, who enjoys 31.5% support. BJP and Congress are in a close contest with BJP having a slight edge over Congress with a predicted 36-40 seats. In Goa, PramodSawant remains the leading CM candidate and BJP looks set to closely retain the state with 19-23 seats.
In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh Yadav have gained considerable momentum and have chipped BJP’s comfortable winning position from last month. Charanjit Singh Channi has strengthened his grip in popularity over Punjab but strong support for AAP and the launch of former CM Cpt. Amarinder Singh’s new political party are set to be key factors for deciding which party will win in Punjab.
As per the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, the predictions are as follows:
Uttar Pradesh: BJP is leading with 40.7% vote share (213 to 221 seats), whereas Samajwadi Partyis second with 31.1% vote share (152 to 160 Seats). BSP is third with 15.1 % vote share (16 to 20 seats).
Punjab:Aam Admi Party is leading with 36.5 % vote share (47 to 53 seats), whereas INC is second with 34.9 % vote share (42 to 50 seats). Shiromani Akali Dalis third with 20.6 % vote share (16 to 24 seats).
Uttarakhand:BJP is leading with 41.4 % vote share (36 to 40 seats), whereas INC is second with 36.3 % vote share (30 to 34 Seats). AAP is third with 11.8 % vote share (0 to 2 seats).
Manipur: BJP is leading with 38.7 % vote share (25 to 29 seats), whereas INC is second with 33.1 % vote share (20 to 24 Seats). Others are at the third spot with 19.4 % vote share (3 to 7 seats).
Goa: BJP is leading with 35.7 % vote share (19 to 23 seats), followed by AAP with 23.6 % vote share (3 to 7 Seats).
Current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted from 9th October to 11thNovember 2021, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.
As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 107000+across 5 states (UP, Punjab,Uttarakhand, ManipurandGoa)and was conducted through CATI (Telephonic survey). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.